Monthly Market Update

Steady Growth, High Prices

• Gross Domestic Product ⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾ (1Q26): Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimates released on April 30^th by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5%. The increase was a result of upturns in government spending and exports, and an acceleration in investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports have gone up.
• Employment (April): Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from 178,000 to 185,000. With these revisions, employment in March and February combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported.
• Inflation ⁽⁴⁾ (March): The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in March, and 2.6% for the last 12 months ending in March.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) (March): The Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, increased 0.5% in March, after rising 0.5% in February and 0.6% in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 4.0% for the 12 months ended in March 2026.
• Retail and Food Services Sales ⁽⁶⁾ (March): Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $752.1 billion, up 1.7% (±0.4%) from the previous month, and up 4.0% (±0.5%) from March 2025.
• Personal Income and PCE ⁽⁹⁾ (March): Personal incomeincreased $149.8 billion (0.6% at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. From the preceding month, the PCE price index increased 0.7%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from one year ago.

Waiting for Warsh

The last FOMC meeting took place on April 29, 2026. The Committee decided to hold federal funds to the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. As of this writing, markets are pricing a 95.9% chance of a hold on June 17, 2026, with a 4.1% chance of cutting rates by 25 bps. ⁽⁷⁾⁽⁸⁾

Highlights of Chair Powell’s Press Conference:

• Inflation Elevated: “While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices..
• Three Dissents in Favor Moving Bias to Neutral: “The three dissenters, and others who could have supported that and others who were non-voters who preferred it, they all supported the right decision. So, people are not saying we need to hike now. It’s more a question of, you know, don’t we kind of feel that we should be neutral… So, I think we just — a group of us, including me, didn’t feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that, that markets are not confused about our reaction function. We don’t have a problem to solve on that.”
• Chair Powell to Stay: “After my term as Chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time, to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.”

IMF Reduces Global Growth Outlook

Key takeaways: After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies.

Monthly and YTD returns

Source: Morningstar and Bloomberg asset class screening total return 1 month USD and total return YTD as of April 30, 2026 ⁽¹¹⁾

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Definitions:

• ⁽¹⁾ Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
• ⁽²⁾ GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
• ⁽³⁾ The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earningsof workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
• ⁽⁴⁾ The Consumer Price Index (CPI):Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• ⁽⁵⁾ The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a %age of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• ⁽⁶⁾ Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services:Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
• ⁽⁷⁾ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
• ⁽⁸⁾ The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• ⁽⁹⁾ The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), ADP Research Institute, U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO). The White House, Tariff FactSheet.

⁽¹¹⁾ Financial Markets – Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.