Monthly Market Update

Recession on the Horizon?

• Gross Domestic Product ⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾ (1Q25): Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in 1Q25, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 4Q24, real GDP increased 2.4%.
• Employment (April): Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
• Inflation ⁽⁴⁾ (March): The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.2% in February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8% for the 12 months ending in March, after rising 3.1% over the 12 months ending in February.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) (March): The Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, decreased 0.4% in March, after increasing 0.1% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7% for the 12 months ended March 2025.
• Retail and Food Services Sales ⁽⁶⁾ (March): Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 0.4% (±0.5%) from the previous month, and up 4.6% (±0.5%) from March 2024.
• Personal Income and PCE ⁽⁹⁾ (March): Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5% at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March decreased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for March increased 2.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6% from one year ago.

IMF Revises Growth Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty

The IMF provided updated global growth forecasts and revised its 2025 global growth projection downward to 2.8%, a decrease from the initial 3.3% forecast in January. The IMF noted that the revised outlook reflects escalating downside risks, even as global economies show signs of stabilization following recent events. However, growth prospects remain underwhelming as deteriorating sentiment, fueled by increasing trade tensions, financial market adjustments, and divergent policy positions, threatening to tighten global financial conditions and constrain both short- and long-term growth.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2025 World Economic Outlook Growth Projections:

Navigating Uncertainty

The next FOMC Meeting is scheduled for May 7, 2025. As of this writing, markets expect rates to remain unchanged.

The last Beige Book report was published on April 23, 2025.  Little has changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was a key point across districts.

Beige Book Highlights:

Economic Sector Activity: “Non-auto consumer spending was lower overall; however, most Districts saw moderate to robust sales of vehicles and of some nondurables, generally attributed to a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases. Both leisure and business travel were down, on balance, and several Districts noted a decline in international visitors. Home sales rose somewhat, and many Districts continued to note low inventory levels. Loan demand was flat to modestly higher on net, and the energy sector experienced modest growth.”

Expected Price Increases: Prices were reported to have increased across districts, with expectations of further increases due to tariffs. Many firms also noted that suppliers have started notifying them of cost increases. While there is uncertainty, most businesses are expecting to pass through cost increases to customers.

Monthly and YTD returns

Source: Morningstar asset class screening total return 1 month USD and total return YTD as of May 1^st, 2025 ⁽¹⁰⁾

This content is being published by Amerant Investments, Inc (Amerant Investments) a dually registered broker-dealer and investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and member of FINRA/SIPC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill, endorsement, or approval. Amerant Investments is an affiliate of Amerant Bank

Definitions:

• ⁽¹⁾ Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
• ⁽²⁾ GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
• ⁽³⁾ The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earningsof workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
• ⁽⁴⁾ The Consumer Price Index (CPI):Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• ⁽⁵⁾ The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a %age of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• ⁽⁶⁾ Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services:Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
• ⁽⁷⁾ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
• ⁽⁸⁾ The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• ⁽⁹⁾ The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

⁽¹⁰⁾ Financial Markets – Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.

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The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered a customized recommendation, personalized investment advice offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or investment strategy. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own situation before making any investment decision.

This information is obtained by AMTI from third-party providers from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to changes in market conditions. By using such information, you release and exonerate AMTI from any responsibility for damages, direct or indirect, that may result from such use. Consult the issuer of any investment for the most up-to-date and accurate information.

All references to performance refer to historical data. There could be benchmarks used that do not reflect the performance of funds or other products with similar objectives

Presentation does not apply in jurisdictions where its use has not been approved. Some products or strategies may be complex or unusual. Make sure you have a clear understanding of the products before investing. Investments may have different tax consequences in different jurisdictions and will depend on the circumstances. AMTI does not offer legal or tax advice, please consult your legal, CPA, or other tax professional regarding your situation.

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• Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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