Monthly Market Update

Resilience Amid Uncertainty

• Gross Domestic Product ⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾ (3Q25): Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the 3Q 2025, according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%.
• Employment (November): Total nonfarm payroll employment changed rose by 64,000 in November, little net change since April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.6%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs. The August and September employment reports were slightly revised down, with a combined revision of -33,000 jobs.
• Inflation ⁽⁴⁾ (November): The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% for the 2 months ending in November. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6% for the 12 months ending in November.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) (October): Due to the Government Shutdown ended on November 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the October PPI report. The release of November date is set for January 14, 2026.
• Retail and Food Services Sales ⁽⁶⁾ (October): Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5%) from the previous month, and up 3.5% (±0.5%) from October 2024.
• Personal Income and PCE ⁽⁹⁾ (October): Due to the Government Shutdown ended on November 12, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has delayed the October PCE report. As of this writing, there is no set date for the October report. The November release is set for January 14, 2026.

Balancing Risks

The most recent Fed meeting took place on December 10, 2025. The FOMC decided to cut federal funds to the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. As of this writing, markets are pricing an 85% chance of holding rates steady, and a 15% chance of lowering rates by another -25 bps at the January 28, 2026 meeting. ⁽⁷⁾⁽⁸⁾

Highlights of Chair Powell’s Press Conference:

• Labor Market Cooling: “Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although official employment data for October and November are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that households’ perceptions of job availability and firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline.
• Limited Data Visibility: “Although important federal government data for the past couple of months have yet to be released, available public- and private-sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in October.”
• Policy Path and Market Guidance: “With today’s decision, we have lowered our policy rate 3/4 percentage point over our last three meetings… The adjustments to our policy stance since September bring it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral and leave us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.

Monthly and YTD returns

Source: Morningstar asset class screening total return 1 month USD and total return YTD as of December 31st 2025 ⁽¹¹⁾

• This content is being published by Amerant Investments, Inc (Amerant Investments) a dually registered broker-dealer and investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and member of FINRA/SIPC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill, endorsement, or approval. Amerant Investments is an affiliate of Amerant BankDefinitions:
  • ⁽¹⁾ Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • ⁽²⁾ GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
  • ⁽³⁾ The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earningsof workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  • Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
  • ⁽⁴⁾ The Consumer Price Index (CPI):Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  • ⁽⁵⁾ The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a %age of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  • The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  • ⁽⁶⁾ Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services:Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
  • ⁽⁷⁾ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
  • ⁽⁸⁾ The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • ⁽⁹⁾ The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

  Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO). The White House, Tariff FactSheet.

  ⁽¹¹⁾ Financial Markets – Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.

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  This information is obtained by AMTI from third-party providers from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to changes in market conditions. By using such information, you release and exonerate AMTI from any responsibility for damages, direct or indirect, that may result from such use. Consult the issuer of any investment for the most up-to-date and accurate information.

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  Additional Risks:

  • Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
  • There is no assurance the Fund will pay distributions in any particular amount, if at all. Any distributions the Fund makes will be at the discretion of the Fund’s Board of Trustees
  • There can be no assurance that any Fund or investment will achieve it objectives or avoid substantial losses. Actual results may vary
  • The value of the investments varies and therefore the amount received at the time of sale might be higher or lower than was originally invested. Actual returns might be better or worse than the ones shown in this informative material.
  • Limited liquidity: Investors should not expect to be able to sell shares regardless of how the Fund performs. Investors should consider that they may not have access to the money they invest for an extended period of time.
  • Volatile markets: Because an investor may be unable to sell its shares, an investor will be unable to reduce its exposure in any market downturn
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