U.S. Economics

Jobs Holding Up, Core Inflation Rose in August

Commodities

OPEC Cuts Production, Venezuela Sanctions Easing? The 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting took place in person at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria, on Wednesday, October 5. In light of the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks, and the need to enhance the long-term guidance for the oil market, and in line with the successful approach of being proactive, and pre-emptive, which has been consistently adopted by OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation, the Participating Countries decided to: In other news, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden Administration is considering allowing easing of sanctions against Venezuela, in order to help the U.S. oil company Chevron resume oil production from the country. However, there have been no formal changes to the Venezuela sanctions policy as yet, according to press reports.

Global Economy

World Economic Growth Projections Lowered

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) updated its global growth forecasts. Although the OECD maintained its outlook for global GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2022, it lowered the outlook for 2023 to 2.2%, down from 2.8% in its June forecast. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development projections (OECD) (September 2022): Americas: Asia: Emerging Markets: Europe: Euro-zone:         +3.1% Latin America:  +3.0% TOTAL World:   +3.0%

Central Banks

Fed Raises Rates by +75 bps in September

At its September FOMC meeting the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by +75 bps, as expected. The release also included an update of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), showing that the median Fed funds rate forecast for 2023 rose to 4.6%, from 3.8% previously.   Highlights of the September FOMC Meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference:

Financial Markets

Monthly and YTD returns

 

Definitions, sources, and disclaimers

Definitions:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

Financial Markets - Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.

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