U.S. Economics

2Q GDP down, but Employment Still Strong 


Commodities

OPEC Production Target Raised Marginally The 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on August 3. The Meeting noted the dynamic and rapidly evolving oil market fundamentals, necessitating continuous assessment of market conditions. The Meeting also noted that the severely limited availability of excess capacity necessitates utilizing it with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions. In view of the latest oil market fundamentals, the Participating Countries decided to:

Global Economy

IMF Lowers Global Growth Projections, Again

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth is projected to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. The July forecast is 0.4 percentage points lower for 2022 than projected in April, primarily due to ongoing impacts from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy globally. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (July 2022): Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (June 2022): Americas: Asia: Emerging Markets: Europe: Euro-zone:         +2.6% Latin America:  +3.0% TOTAL World:  +3.2%

Central Banks

Fed Hikes by +75 bps in July, Not Done Yet

The Fed raised rates by +75 bps in July, increasing the Fed funds rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The July meeting did not include an update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The next FOMC meeting is in September. Highlights of the July FOMC Statement and Chair Powell’s press conference include:

Financial Markets

Monthly and YTD returns


Definitions, sources, and disclaimers

Definitions:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

Financial Markets - Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.

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