- Equities had another positive week last week, adding to all-time highs as strong tech earnings and optimism over a Middle East truce buoyed sentiment. We note that market optimism remains high despite the lack of a concrete settlement agreement in the Middle East. Oil prices climbed back to the mid-$90 range (WTI) (Brent, $106) as the war drags on. Over the weekend, planned peace talks in Pakistan were cancelled, and recent reports indicate the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.
- Treasury yields are rangebound, with elevated uncertainty about the path of interest rates. We note that this week marks the final meeting for Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, and Fed Funds futures are pricing in a zero percent chance of a change in interest rates at this week’s meeting. Markets are pricing in less than a 50% chance of any rate cuts this year, ahead of the expected confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Chair.
- In earnings last week, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), Vertiv (VRT), and GE Vernova (GEV) posted stellar results that solidified belief in AI-related demand acceleration. Of those, Intel positively stood out, posting a 10% increase in revenue, ahead of consensus for a 2% contraction and along with higher-than-expected 2Q26 sales guidance. The biggest disappointment of the week was ServiceNow (NOW), which missed forward guidance, as the relentless sell-off in software stocks showed no signs of abating.
- In other corporate news, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook announced his retirement, with John Ternus stepping into the CEO role. Ternus is a long-time company executive, responsible for the Hardware Products division. Elsewhere, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) announced sizable workforce layoffs, as the tech giants continue to funnel resources into AI investments, while Alphabet (GOOGL) disclosed an agreement to invest up to an additional $40 bn in Anthropic.
- In macro news last week, we got March Retail Sales. As expected, the report showed the impact of higher gas prices. Advance Retail Sales rose by 1.7% MoM, but were driven by Gas. Excluding Auto and Gas, Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM, unchanged from the revised February statistic.
The Week Ahead
- 1Q26 earnings season goes into overdrive this week, as several of the “Mag 7” are on deck with reports from Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). As well, Broadcom (AVGO), Corning (GLW), Micron (MU), Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), Klac (KLAC), Caterpillar (CAT), Mastercard (MA), Visa (V), and Starbucks (SBUX) are among companies set to report earnings.
- In macro data this week, it will be Fed Chair Powell’s last meeting as Chair. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady. There will not be any update to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections accompanying this meeting. As well, the DoJ dropped its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh to take over as Chair in May. It is unclear if Powell will remain on the Board or step down. Although it is customary for the Fed Chair to resign from the Board, Powell has yet to commit to a course of action.
- We also get Advance GDP this week. 1Q26 GDP is expected to be 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted annual (SAAR) basis, up from 0.5% in 4Q25.
- Other macro data this week includes March PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Core PCE is forecast to rise by 0.3% MoM and 3.2% YoY. As a reminder, the Fed targets 2% core PCE inflation YoY, a figure that has not been reached since the pandemic.
- Lastly, we get March Personal Income and Spending. Both are expected to climb from February’s figures.
Market Summary – Returns and Yields
- For the year-to-date, we have seen positive returns across most markets. Bonds are up only slightly, while equity indices have now turned positive for YTD after a slow start. Oil remains the leader, while the dollar has lagged.
For additional insights, be sure to check out last week’s blog post.
Definitions, sources, and disclaimers
This content is being published by Amerant Investments, Inc (Amerant Investments), a dually registered broker-dealer and investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and member of FINRA/SIPC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill, endorsement, or approval. Amerant Investments is an affiliate of Amerant Bank.
Definitions:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
- The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
- The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).
Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.
Important Disclosures:
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered a customized recommendation, personalized investment advice offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or investment strategy. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own situation before making any investment decision.
This information is obtained by AMTI from third-party providers from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to changes in market conditions. By using such information, you release and exonerate AMTI from any responsibility for damages, direct or indirect, that may result from such use. Consult the issuer of any investment for the most up-to-date and accurate information.
All references to performance refer to historical data. There could be benchmarks used that do not reflect the performance of funds or other products with similar objectives
Presentation does not apply in jurisdictions where its use has not been approved. Some products or strategies may be complex or unusual. Make sure you have a clear understanding of the products before investing. Investments may have different tax consequences in different jurisdictions and will depend on the circumstances. AMTI does not offer legal or tax advice, please consult your legal, CPA, or other tax professional regarding your situation.
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Additional Risks:
- Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
- There is no assurance the Fund will pay distributions in any particular amount, if at all. Any distributions the Fund makes will be at the discretion of the Fund’s Board of Trustees
- There can be no assurance that any Fund or investment will achieve it objectives or avoid substantial losses. Actual results may vary
- The value of the investments varies and therefore the amount received at the time of sale might be higher or lower than was originally invested. Actual returns might be better or worse than the ones shown in this informative material.
- Limited liquidity: Investors should not expect to be able to sell shares regardless of how the Fund performs. Investors should consider that they may not have access to the money they invest for an extended period of time.
- Volatile markets: Because an investor may be unable to sell its shares, an investor will be unable to reduce its exposure in any market downturn
- Funds may invest in securities that are rated below investment grade by rating agencies or that would be rated below investment grade if they were rated. Below investment grade securities, which are often referred to as “junk,” have predominantly speculative characteristics with respect to the issuer’s capacity to pay interest and repay principal. They may also be illiquid and difficult to value
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