- With the books closed on September, equities had their worst month for the year-to-date with the S&P down nearly -5% and the NASDAQ close to -6%. The pressure was a combination of normal seasonal weakness, continued repricing in U.S. Treasuries acting as a headwind for equities, and a breather from the torrid pace of market optimism related to AI technology. External events, such as the UAW strike and the threatened government shutdown, added further caution.
- Several Fed officials spoke last week, with no consensus over whether the Fed funds rates has peaked or one more +25 bps hike in November. What is clear is the Fed’s view that there is more work to do on getting core inflation on a path to 2%, which necessitates that rates be held at these elevated levels for longer. Treasuries sold off, with long Treasuries posting a -8% return for September. The 30Y Treasury yield is around 4.75%, up about +50 bps in one month, while the 10Y is now above 4.6%. We do not rule out a push to 5% on the long end given the current Fed speak and focus on Treasury supply amid ongoing government deficits.
- Equities: Last week, stocks posted mixed results amid continued elevated volatility in trading, as the S&P 500 retreated while the NASDAQ posted small gains in a light week for both economic data and earnings results. Nike (NKE) beat estimates on better margin while easing inventory level concerns, while Micron (MU) and CarMax (KMX) disappointed. Cintas (CTAS), Costco (COST), Paychex (PAYX) and Carnival Cruises (CCL) issued rather muted prints. In AI news, OpenAI was reported to be close to selling a stake at a $80-90 billion valuation which would imply a 300% increase from the latest capital raising round earlier in the year, as it announced a large update. In corporate news, Chico FAS (CHS) was acquired, and Peleton (PTON) surged on a partnership agreement with Lululemon (LULU). In union news, the Hollywood Screenwriters Association reached a tentative deal with content providers ending its five month strike.
- In macro news, initial jobless claims came in better than expected, at 204,000 compared to the estimate for 215,000. August new home sales were lower than expected at 675,000 annual rate (est. 698K, prior 739K).
- The August PCE data was better than expected. August PCE MoM was up 0.4%, vs. estimate of 0.5% and prior of 0.2%. Core PCE MoM was up 0.2%, in-line with estimate and prior. On a YoY basis, PCE deflator was up 3.5%, in-line with estimate and up from 3.3% in July. Core PCE YoY was up 3.9%, vs. estimate of 3.9% and prior of 4.2%. Still we note that core PCE is higher than headline, and both indicators remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Week Ahead
- This week, the biggest macro data point of the week will be the September payroll report on October 6. The estimate calls for 165K expansion in nonfarm payrolls, with unemployment rate at 3.7% and YoY wages up by 4.3%.
Market Summary – Returns and Yields
Definitions, sources, and disclaimers
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
- The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Initial Claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country. However, these are weekly administrative data which are difficult to seasonally adjust, making the series subject to some volatility. Source: US Department of Labor (DOL).
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI): Is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The national unemployment rate: Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services, adjusted and unadjusted for seasonal variations. Source: United States Census Bureau.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Responsible for implementing Open market Operations (OMOs)–the purchase and sale of securities in the open market by a central bank—which are a key tool used by the US Federal Reserve in the implementation of monetary policy. Source: Federal Reserve.
- The Federal Funds Rate: Is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- The “core” PCE price index: Is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).
Financial Markets – Recent Prices and Yields, and Weekly, Monthly, and YTD (Table): Bloomberg, Weekly Market Data is in USD and refers to the following indices: Macro & Market Indicators: Volatility (VIX); Oil (WTI); Dollar Index (DXA); Inflation (CPI YoY); Fixed Income: All U.S. Bonds (Bloomberg Aggregate Index); Investment Grade Corporates (Bloomberg US Corporate Index); US High Yield (Bloomberg High Yield Index), Treasuries (ICE BofA Treasury Indices); Equities: U.S. Industrials (Dow Jones Industrial Average); U.S. Large Caps (S&P 500); U.S Tech Equities (Nasdaq Composite); European (MSCI Euope), Asia Pacific (MSCI AP), and Latin America Equities (MSCI LA); Sectors (S&P 500 GICS Sectors) Source: Bloomberg. Fed Funds Rate probabilities, Source: CME FedWatch Tool.
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