U.S. Economics

Inflation still elevated, 2Q GDP estimate lower


Commodities

OPEC Production Target Increased The 30th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on June 30. In view of current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook, the OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to:

Global Economy

World Growth Projections for 2022

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), growth is projected to slow from 5.8% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. This is 1.4 percentage points lower for 2022, than projected in December 2021, primarily due to the conflict in Ukraine and supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by shutdowns in China due to the zero-COVID policy. Americas: Asia: Emerging Markets: Europe: Euro-zone:         +2.6% Latin America: TOTAL World:  +3.0%

Central Banks

Fed Hikes by +75 bps in June, July Hike Expected

The Fed raised rates by +75 bps in June, increasing the Fed funds rate to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. The June meeting also included an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which indicated the FOMC’s median forecast for the Fed funds rate as of year-end 2022 was 3.4%, compared to 1.9% in March projections.

Financial Markets

Monthly and YTD returns


Definitions, sources, and disclaimers

Definitions:

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Human Development (HUD), U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U..S Department of the Treasury, Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Department of Commerce, data.gov, investor.gov, usa.gov, congress.gov, whitehouse.gov, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Morningstar, The International Monetary Funds (IMF), The World Bank (WB), European Central bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Parliament, Eurostats, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), World health organization (WHO).

Financial Markets - Monthly and YTD returns (Table): Asset class performance is in USD and refers to the following indices: Equities: US Large Caps (S&P 500), Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), Europe (MSCI Europe), Japan (MSCI Japan). Fixed Income: 10-Yr. US Treasuries (BofAML US Treasury Current 10-Yr.), Emerging Markets Sovereign (USD) (JPM EMBI Global), US High Yield (BofAML US HY Master II), US Investment Grade (BarCap US Aggregate Bond), and Developed Markets Sovereign (excl. US) (JPM GBI Global Ex US). Source: Morningstar.

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